It's the first day of the new year, and you can't help but look back for just a moment. If you ponder the accumulation of events that shaped the last twelve months, you'll soon see that many were not to be believed. In fact, most of them defy all predictability and logic.
Therefore, what do I have to lose?
Here are my Nostradamus-like predictions for 2013. And like a broken clock, at occasional times, I'm bound to get a few of these right:
TECHNOLOGY
As they say in show business, "you ain't seen nothing yet." And a result, expect to pay more. There's no better place to start than Facebook. The King of the Social Media Highway will begin charging a toll for all those who pass through. It's uncertain where it will stem from, but consider this a warning and keep your itchy trigger fingers away from the "Like" and "Upload Photo" buttons.
In addition, expect Apple to infiltrate your body. Not internally, unless they come up with the iColonoscopy. This version will most likely be something that you can wear. As the iOS platform can be easily inserted in most places, expect some version of a watch, belt, or even glasses. And as usual, you'll feel that you HAVE to have it AND be amongst the first.
In other news, expect Twitter to go public. What does this mean for you? Not too much unless you own the stock. And if you do, anticipate that your portfolio will go down. If you need a case study, see Facebook, Groupon, and Zynga.
WALL STREET
I won't make any grandiose predictions on the Fiscal Cliff, but there are a couple of things we do know for sure. Higher income individuals will be taxed at a higher level. Capital gains taxes will be on the rise. And some loopholes for the top 1% will be closed, including estate tax exemptions. That only means 2 things for Wall Street:
More Cheating and Stealing
When you get lemons on Wall Street, you don't make lemonade. You cut to the chase and steal someone else's lemonade. Let's see, we had junk bonds, inflated oil prices, subprime mortgages. There must be something left to exploit. Maybe silver. They haven't tried that yet. So hold on to your dental fillings. Wall Street is eerily similar to casinos. When the profit margin on blackjack and poker begins to dwindle, you just create better odds and give blackjack and poker new labels. Some things never change. Because when it comes to casinos or Wall Street, the house always wins.
MOVIES
We're running out of superheroes that don't already have their own movie, although Supergirl is still available. But beyond these laborious films, you can expect more Judd Apatow look-a-likes that will be only slightly worse than their already dreadful predecessors. They'll be released from January through September, once again leaving the really good films for the final months of the year. In addition, the window between theatrical release and "video" release will grow even shorter and more films will go straight to VOD. Eventually all the films you'll ever want to see in a given year will be in the theaters and on VOD from Thanksgiving through Christmas.
And one more thing. Animated movies will continue to reign supreme for overall storytelling.
COLLEGE EXPENSES
A recent Wall Street Journal study of the University of Minnesota showed that the number of administrators making between 200K and 400K had grown exponentially over the last 5 years. Keep in mind that these people aren't even professors that already make their own pretty penny. To make matters worse, their student body hasn't risen during an equal period of time. I suspect most colleges have similar ratios.
Incredibly, the government is distracted with entitlements and tax breaks; therefore forgetting about these inflated college costs which eventually turn into individual debt. If you have more than 1 child, you may as well sit them down now and explain how interest works because they'll be paying it well into retirement.
EMPLOYMENT
"Some fly by day....some fly by night...." Remember the theme from Moonlighting? Even if you don't, that's what you can expect to be doing next year. Expenses are rising; salaries aren't. Many are still unemployed, and those who were lucky enough to find their way back in are taking less money. The math just doesn't add up. So expect to look for multiple revenue streams to keep pace. Consulting, tutoring, waitering...whatever. We're all going to need the money.
TELEVISION
Just the mere term, "television" has taken on a multitude of meanings. In the past, television referred to a specific device, in your home, that multiple people gathered around to watch. This anachronistic scene was just a few short years ago. Now, thanks to mobile devices and multiple distribution systems, television viewing has become much more individualized, increasingly personalized, and viewed on much smaller screens.
As for the future, expect more of the same. Cable companies will be forced to consider re-packaging in a way that will cater towards individual viewing habits. However, this will not lead to the proliferation of more channels. Just the opposite. Carriage fees are already through the roof, so systems will want to pass on less, not more. However, expect news and sports channel programming to increase. For now and forever, people will be attracted to the immediacy and informative nature of both.
TRAVEL/AUTOS
Cars are getting safer every year, where even the least expensive have the latest in safety features and technology. That's good news for consumers. However, the future varies for each manufacturer. Toyota just wrote a billion dollar check for something they didn't even admit to. I'd expect a major push to win back some of that cash. Honda improves on their Accord in every generation, and Ford remains the high tech leader in the low to mid range space. The upscale manufacturers will continue to duke it out, but Audi has separated itself from the commoners and will continue to nitpick at BMW and Mercedes forcing them to play defense.
Moving to the air, the airlines have consolidated and charged enough for your bags over the last few years to begin giving something back to the consumer. It probably won't be in the form of cash, but upgraded planes with Wi-fi, and fancy new terminals at key airports will be their way of saying thank you for getting ripped off in the good name of our solvency.
POLITICS
This one is always a wild card. 2012 was a year to remember in this regard, but even without a Presidential election, 2013 is already off to the races. There are a ton of big decisions to be made that will have an impact on us all. The bottom-line is, expect to lose a little. That's the essence of any negotiation. You'll pay more in taxes, probably have fewer entitlements, and most likely not get enough satisfaction in any changes in gun control.
Politics is a lot like Chinese Food. You're happy you ate, you just can't figure out why you're hungry an hour later.
HOW ABOUT YOU?
So what do you predict for the upcoming year? Don't be shy. The beauty is, it's too early to be wrong.
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